Are the Olympics a Harbinger of Liberty?

The upcoming Olympic games in China this year have generated a lot of controversy. The reasons are simple. China intends the event to signal their emergence on the world stage, so it's clearly a matter of national prestige. Yet China has a lot to be ashamed of: the conquest of Tibet, continued crushing of human rights, imprisonment of political dissidents, and atrocious environmental problems. China is a tyranny, and nothing about that is changed by hosting the Olympics, despite the glamour the communist regime hopes it will lend.

On the other hand, the Olympics are almost certainly going to be a venue for political grandstanding intended to make the Chinese government very uncomfortable. It's already begun, actually. For example, Stephen Spielberg was involved in the event, but he stepped down to protest China's see-no-evil stance towards the Darfur crisis. I expect to see at least one gold medal winner use his victory as a platform for similar forms of social protest. It's an irresistible venue for celebrities, athletes, and other media darlings.

All the fuss got me thinking: of the countries that have ever hosted the Olympics, how many were undemocratic? As it turns out, not many. I did a little homework, and according to my research, the list is: Nazi Germany, the Soviet Union, Yugoslavia, and South Korea. (South Korea is included because the Olympics and the establishment of democracy were virtually simultaneous. In fact, fear of pro-democracy unrest at the Olympics was part of the motivation.)

Then I noticed that all of these countries are now democracies! (Of varying qualities, of course.) And I wondered: How long did tyranny last in each country after the Olympics? Here are my findings:

Country: Germany
Games On: 1936
Democratic By: 1946
Tyranny Duration: 10 years

Country: Soviet Union
Games On: 1980
Democratic By: 1991
Tyranny Duration: 11 years

Country: Yugoslavia
Games On: 1984
Democratic By: 1990-92
Tyranny Duration: 6-8 years

Country: South Korea
Games On: 1988
Democratic By: 1987
Tyranny Duration: 0 years (coincident)

Check this out. Not one country maintained its tyranny for more than 11 years after it hosted the games. What does this mean? It suggests that if it follows the pattern of all tyrannies before it, China could be democratic by 2019!

And if you think about it, it's not that far-fetched. The Olympics tend to be hosted by countries that are at least moderately wealthy and industrialized, for obvious reasons; you need electricity, stadiums, etc. And those countries are, by and large, democracies.

All the tyrannies on this list were industrial--just as China is. And China has followed the trend towards liberty. Authoritarianism is on the decline there already--if only modestly; rules and attitudes are generally relaxing. (All bets are off if there are demonstrations, though; I suspect they would be crushed.)

Much more impressive, though, are the economic strides China has made, especially in the last few decades. it has been growing wealthy at a breakneck pace; it is a hard-core capitalist nation growing at least 10% a year. If there's any connection between industrialization, wealth and democracy--and I think that's undeniable--China could see some major political change in the next decade.